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TikTok’s potential ban in U.S. could be boon for Meta and Snap

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TikTok logo is displayed on the smartphone while standing on the U.S. flag in this illustration picture taken, November 8, 2019.
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Investors in Meta, Snap and other U.S. digital media companies have been looking for signs of a rebound after a tumultuous 2022. They got some unexpectedly optimistic news this week.
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The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee on Wednesday voted to advance legislation that would give President Joe Biden the authority to ban TikTok, the viral video app owned by China’s ByteDance that’s been swiping market share from social media stalwarts.

“Implications are great for anybody that has been losing market share to TikTok,” said Laura Martin, an analyst at Needham, in an interview. She said Snap, Meta’s Facebook and Google’s YouTube could be “huge beneficiaries” if the ban ultimately takes place.

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TikTok has been on a meteoric rise in the U.S., and its impact was particularly noticeable in 2022, as a sputtering economy pulled down the online ad market.

In 2021, TikTok topped a billion monthly users. An August Pew Research Center survey found that 67% of teens in the U.S. use TikTok, and 16% said they are on it almost constantly. According to Insider Intelligence, TikTok controls 2.3% of the worldwide digital ad market, putting it behind only Google (including YouTube), Facebook (including Instagram), Amazon and Alibaba.

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But data privacy concerns have been growing with TikTok because of its parent company, which is based in China and privately held. Congress banned TikTok from government devices as part of a bipartisan spending bill in December, several governors have removed the app from state computer networks —including at public universities — and Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., renewed calls for a complete nationwide ban in January.

China doesn't care about your privacy, says ZeroFox CEO James Foster

“A U.S. ban on TikTok is a ban on the export of American culture and values to the billion-plus people who use our service worldwide,” a TikTok spokesperson said Wednesday. “We’re disappointed to see this rushed piece of legislation move forward, despite its considerable negative impact on the free speech rights of millions of Americans who use and love TikTok.”

Even with the legislation that came before the committee this week, lawmakers have a long way to go before any real ban could be implemented. Assuming this bill gets through the Republican-controlled House, the Democratic majority Senate would have to pass some version of it, which will be a challenge based on the opposition that has already been voiced by some Democrats. If it did pass the Senate, Biden would still need to decide whether to veto it or sign it.

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TikTok is no stranger to challenges from U.S. officials, as former President Donald Trump declared his intention to ban the app by executive action in 2020.

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ByteDance looked to potentially spin off TikTok to keep the app from being shut down, and the company forged an agreement with Trump that was to include partnerships with Oracle and Walmart, which would both become investors in TikTok.

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Those deals fizzled, but Martin said it’s possible that the app could be successfully acquired this time. In that case, TikTok might be a weakened competitor and experience a period of uncertainty, but “it wouldn’t just disappear and get shut down,” Martin said.

Andrew Boone, an analyst at JMP, said Meta likely stands to benefit the most should TikTok face a U.S. ban. Facebook has been pumping money into its TikTok rival, Reels, which has yet to establish a revenue model that’s as effective as the core newsfeed.

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Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc., left, arrives at federal court in San Jose, California, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2022. 

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

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Meta said during its fourth-quarter earnings call that it expects Reels to become revenue neutral by the end of the year or in early 2024. Video plays on Facebook and Instagram more than doubled within the past year.

“If TikTok were to go away, I think that there would be a lot more consumption of Instagram Reels,” Boone said in an interview. He said Snapchat’s Spotlight, introduced in 2020, and YouTube Shorts, which came out in 2021, “would also benefit.”

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All three platforms had a rough 2022. Meta shares lost two-thirds of their value as the company experienced three consecutive quarters of declining revenue. Snap’s stock plummeted 81% as growth dipped into the single digits, and the company opted not to provide a forecast for two straight periods. YouTube advertising revenue fell short of analyst expectations in the fourth quarter, dropping 8% from a year earlier.

The rush to copy TikTok hasn’t gone over well in many circles.

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In July, Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri shared a video explaining changes to the social media platform after celebrities like Kylie Jenner and Kim Kardashian criticized the app for “trying to be TikTok.”

A post urging the company to “make Instagram Instagram again” amassed more than 1.6 million likes and resulted in nearly 140,000 petition signatures. A month later, Mosseri announced his plans to move from San Francisco to London to help Meta lure users away from TikTok.

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— CNBC’s Christina Wilkie, Lauren Feiner and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this report

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TikTok possibly being banned





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TikTok CEO appeals to U.S. users ahead of House testimony

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N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu says TikTok should not be banned
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew appealed directly to the app’s users ahead of what’s expected to be a heated grilling in the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee this week, in a video posted to the platform Tuesday.

Filming from Washington, D.C., Chew emphasized the large scale of TikTok users, small and medium-sized businesses and its own employees based in the U.S. that rely on the company. The message may preview his appeal to lawmakers Thursday, where he will be faced with questions about the ability of its Chinese parent company ByteDance, and the Chinese government, to access U.S. user information collected by the app.

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TikTok says it has worked to create a risk mitigation plan to ensure that U.S. data doesn’t get into the hands of a foreign adversary through its app. The company has said U.S. user data is already stored outside of China.

But many lawmakers and intelligence officials seem to remain unconvinced that the information can be safe while TikTok is owned by a Chinese company. TikTok said last week that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which is reviewing risks related to the app, is pushing for ByteDance to sell its stake or face a ban.

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Chew disclosed in the video that TikTok has more than 150 million monthly active users, or MAUs, in the U.S., representing massive growth from August 2020, when it said for the first time that it has about 100 million MAUs in the country. That number includes 5 million businesses that use the app to reach their customers, with most of those being small or medium-sized businesses. He also said TikTok has 7,000 U.S.-based employees.

“This comes at a pivotal moment for us,” Chew said, referencing lawmakers’ threats of a TikTok ban. “This could take TikTok away from all 150 million of you.”

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Chew then appealed to users directly to share in the comments what they want their representatives to know about why they love TikTok.

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WATCH: TikTok and ByteDance spied on this Forbes reporter

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Bill Gates says OpenAI’s GPT is the most important advance in technology since 1980

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Microsoft founder Bill Gates speaks during the Global Fund Seventh Replenishment Conference in New York on September 21, 2022.
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Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates says that OpenAI’s GPT AI model is the most revolutionary advance in technology since he first saw a modern graphical desktop environment (GUI) in 1980.
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Before that, people used their computers through a command line. Gates took the “GUI” technology and based Windows around it, creating a modern-day software juggernaut.

Now, Gates sees parallels with OpenAI’s GPT models, which can write text that resembles human output and generate nearly usable computer code.

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He wrote in a blog post on Tuesday that he challenged the OpenAI team last year to develop an artificial intelligence model that could pass the Advanced Placement Biology exam. GPT-4, released to the public last week, scored the maximum score, according to OpenAI.

“The whole experience was stunning,” Gates wrote. “I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.”

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“The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone. It will change the way people work, learn, travel, get health care, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it,” he continued.

Gates is the latest big name technologist to take a position on recent advancements in AI as a major shift in the technology industry. He joins former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos who have predicted that data-based machine learning could change entire industries.

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Current CEOs also see major business opportunities in AI applications and tools. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday that the field is experiencing an “iPhone moment,” referring to the time when a new technology becomes widely adopted and entrepreneurs see opportunities for new businesses and products.

Gates and Microsoft have close ties to OpenAI, which developed the GPT model. Microsoft invested $10 billion in the startup and sells some of its AI software through Azure cloud services.

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Gates suggests that people talking about AI should “balance fears” of biased, wrong or unfriendly tools with its potential to improve lives. He also believes governments and philanthropies should back AI tools to improve education and health in the developing world, because companies won’t necessarily choose to make those investments themselves.

The entire post from Gates is worth a read over at his blog.

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Google CEO tells employees that 80,000 of them helped test Bard AI, warns ‘things will go wrong’

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Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai gestures during a session at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, on January 22, 2020.
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Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai told employees that the success of its newly launched Bard A.I. program now hinges on public testing.
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“As more people start to use Bard and test its capabilities, they’ll surprise us. Things will go wrong,” Pichai wrote in an internal email to employees Tuesday viewed by CNBC. “But the user feedback is critical to improving the product and the underlying technology.”

The message to employees comes as Google launched Bard as “an experiment” Tuesday morning, after months of anticipation. The product, which is built on Google’s LaMDA, or Language Model for Dialogue Applications, can offer chatty responses to complicated or open-ended questions, such as “give me ideas on how to introduce my daughter to fly fishing.”

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Alphabet shares were up almost 4% in mid-day trading following the announcement.

In many disclaimers in the product, the company warns that Bard may make mistakes or “give inaccurate or inappropriate responses.” 

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The latest internal messaging comes as the company tries to keep apace with the quickly evolving advancements in generative AI technology over the last several months — especially Microsoft-backed OpenAI and its ChatGPT technology.

Employees and investors criticized Google after Bard’s initial announcement in January, which appeared rushed to compete with Microsoft’s just-announced Bing integration of ChatGPT. In a recent all-hands meeting, employees’ top-rated questions included confusion around the purpose of Bard. At that meeting, executives defended Bard as an experiment and tried to make distinctions between the chatbot and its core search product.

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Pichai’s Tuesday email also said 80,000 Google employees contributed to testing Bard, responding to Pichai’s all-hands-on-deck call to action last month, which included a plea for workers to re-write the chatbot’s bad answers.

Pichai’s Tuesday note also said the company is trying to test responsibly and invited 10,000 trusted testers “from a variety of backgrounds and perspectives.”

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Pichai also said employees “should be proud of this work and the years of tech breakthroughs that led us here, including our 2017 Transformer research and foundational models such as PalM and BERT.” He added: “Even after all this progress, we’re still in the early stages of a long Al journey.”

“For now, I’m excited to see how Bard sparks more creativity and curiosity in the people who use it,” he said, adding he looks forward to sharing “the breadth of our progress in AI” at Google’s annual developer conference in May.

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Here’s the full memo:

Hi, Googlers

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Last week was an important week in Al with our announcements around Cloud, Developer, and Workspace. There’s even more to come this week as we begin to expand access to Bard, which we first announced in February.

Starting today, people in the US and the UK can sign up at bard google.com. This is just a first step, and we’ll continue to roll it out to more countries and languages over time.

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I’m grateful to the Bard team who has probably spent more time with Bard than anything or anyone else over the past few weeks. Also hugely appreciative of the 80,000 Googlers who have helped test it in the company-wide dogfood. We should be proud of this work and the years of tech breakthroughs that led us here, including our 2017 Transformer research and foundational models such as PalM and BERT.

Even after all this progress, we’re still in the early stages of a long Al journey. As more people start to use Bard and test its capabilities, they’ll surprise us. Things will go wrong. But the user feedback is critical to improving the product and the underlying technology.

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We’ve taken a responsible approach to development, including inviting 10,000 trusted testers from a variety of backgrounds and perspectives, and we’ll continue to welcome all the feedback that’s about to come our way. We will learn from it and keep iterating and improving.

For now, I’m excited to see how Bard sparks more creativity and curiosity in the people who use it. And I look forward to sharing the full breadth of our progress in Al to help people, businesses and communities as we approach I/O in May.

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—Sundar



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