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Overall analysis of by-polls in 6 states; whose stakes are high and who is going to form government?

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By-election for seven assembly constituencies in six states namely Bihar, Maharashtra, Haryana, Telangana, UP and Odisha is underway and result will be out by November 6.
Voting is under way in the by-election in Mokama and Gopalganj assembly constituencies of Bihar, Andheri (East) of Maharashtra, Adampur of Haryana, Munugode of Telangana, Gola Gokarannath of Uttar Pradesh, and Dhamnagar of Odisha.

Among these seven states three are BJP turf where regional parties are seen giving tough competition. While, Congress hold two while the Shiv Sena and the RJD had one each.

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The BJP biggest challenge is to sustained the momentum from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The three states in which BJP is ruling party namely Haryana, UP and Maharashtra, the government is at stake — either as the single largest party or as a coalition partner.
The opposition parties will try to dominate the election and break the government gauge. BJP has to come up as most credible party on the national political landscape.

In today’s bypolls at Andheri (E), Maharashtra pressure is high as it is the first major election in Maharashtra since the change of guard at Mantralaya and the “split” in the Shiv Sena.

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However, In a strategic step-back, BJP decides to skip Andheri polls and thus nullifying the contest between the two Sena factions.

The BJP candidate (also supported by the Shinde faction) withdrew his nomination, giving a virtual walkover to Rutuja Latke of the Thackeray faction. But the Thackeray-led camp in Sena has also been alleging that its political opponents are trying to influence voters to choose NOTA.

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In Bihar too, this is the first major polls after the political “realignment” that saw JD(U) parting ways with the BJP and joining hands with RJD, Congress and some other parties to form a Grand Alliance government.

In Mokama district RJD’s Anant Singh convicted in a criminal case and has to leave the seat. The Grand Alliance has fielded his wife this time, to which BJP is trying to use the “criminal nexus” allegation and win the seat.

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Whereas in Gopalganj seat former BJP MLA Subhash Singh wife is running for the polls after his demise from BJP side and likely to win the by-polls.

In Telangana after Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy quit the Congress and also as MLA in August, and joined the BJP the seat in Munugode seat was vacant. Congress, BJP and KCR’s TRS all three major political parties are contesting the by-polls and giving high competition to each other.

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The Gola Gokrannath, UP the by-polls was necessitated after the death of BJP’s Arvind Giri.

With Congress and BSP not fielding candidates, it will be a direct fight between the BJP and SP. For the former, it seems to be more about its ego in terms of reinforcing its supremacy. For the latter, it can be more of a morale booster that can potentially make up for the loss faced in the assembly polls earlier this year.

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Both parties will hope to ride the sympathy wave — BJP has fielded the late Giri’s 26-year-old son Aman. SP, that recently lost its patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, has fielded Vinay Tewari who unsuccessfully contested the polls from the seat in 2017 and 2022.

In Haryana Former CM Bhajan Lal’s family has never lost the Adampur seat since the creation of the state in 1966.

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Now, Bhajan Lal’s grandson, Bhavya Bishnoi, is contesting as a BJP candidate.

The bypoll was necessitated after Bhajan Lal’s son Kuldeep Bishnoi (Bhavya’s father) switched from the Congress to BJP, resigning from the seat. He was expelled from Congress for “anti-party activities.”

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With the Congress fielding Jai Prakash, who is close to former CM Bhupinder Hooda, the seat is likely to witness a fresh episode of the decades-old battle between Bhajan Lal and Hooda families.

AAP, that registered a stellar performance in neighbouring Punjab, will hope to make it a three-way contest with the Congress.

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In Dhamnagar, Odisha the bypoll was necessitated by the death of BJP MLA Bishu Charan Sethi in September. The party has give ticket to his son Suryabanshi Suraj Sthitaprajna.

Rival BJD has fielded a female candidate – Abanti Das. The Congress has fielded Harekrushna Sethi in Dhamnagar.

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This contest can be a reality check.

The ruling BJD seemed to have lost steam with its below-par performance in the 2019 Odisha assembly elections but in the panchayat polls, earlier this year, it decimated the opposition.

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On the other hand, the BJP, which won eight of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha in 2019, seems to have recalibrated its strategy to regain the ground it has lost over the last three years.



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As part of Rahul Gandhi’s trials, Kanhaiya may get bigger role in Congress

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The Congress leadership is testing waters to appoint CPI functionary-turned-Congressman Kanhaiya Kumar in a leadership slot, with the presidentship of the Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee (DPCC) or the Indian Youth Congress (IYC) being weighed as options, according to people aware of the development.The move has triggered disquiet among sections of the DPCC and IYC leaders who consider Kumar a “political and ideological outsider”, they said.

Kumar, a former JNU students union leader, joined the Congress in 2021 by reaching out to Rahul Gandhi. While many Congress leaders of his home state Bihar were known to have resisted any active role being given to him.

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With attempts to revive the Delhi PCC coming to naught, a section of Congress leadership is now known to be arguing that Kumar can be the “panacea” for Delhi Congress even as they cite how another “experiment”, of bringing Dikshit “from UP to Delhi Congress leadership” had succeeded. Similarly, IYC leadership is also being cited as a potential slot for Kumar, 36, by arguing that Srinivas BV, 42, will be soon completing four years in IYC leadership.

But many among the Delhi Congress and IYC brass are not enthused about the move. “Kumar is far too new in the Congress to be considered to head a PCC. And those arguing Sheila (Dikshit) ji too was an outsider in Delhi Congress are being dishonest because she had been a Congress leader right from the beginning,” said a Delhi Congress functionary, who did not wish to be identified. The mood is similar in IYC, especially as most IYC leaders have been fighting against the Leftists and saffron outfits.

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UP BJP lines up plans to woo OBCs amid SP’s caste play

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The BJP OBC (other backward classes) wing in Uttar Pradesh has lined up a string of campaigns over March and April to reach out to the other backward classes in the state which will set the tone for offsetting the Samajwadi Party‘s apparent efforts to centre the 2024 Lok Sabha election around caste census and politics of social justice. The BJP UP OBC morcha held its state executive meet in Kanpur on Sunday which was also attended by deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya.

The head of the morcha, Narendra Kashyap, said following the training of workers till March 30 to create awareness among them regarding achievements of the central government and ideology of the BJP, a statewide ‘Gaon Chalo, Ghar Chalo’ campaign will be kicked off wherein the workers will fan out in 15,000 villages of the 80 Lok Sabha seats and intimate people of the community about the government and party” achievements in furthering their welfare.

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“Through this campaign we will also expose the Samajwadi Party’s demands about caste census and tell people that they forgot about it when they were in power themselves and remain focused then on benefitting their own family,” said Kashyap, who is also the state minister for backward classes welfare.



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Meghalaya: Voice of the People’s Party stages walkout in protest of Governor’s Hindi speech

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The Voice of the People’s Party (VPP) staged a walk out of Meghalaya Assembly in protest against the Governor Phagu Chauhan for delivering his address in Hindi.The Governor on the first day of the Budget Session delivered his speech in Hindi.

VPP legislator from Nongkrem, Ardent Miller Basaiawmoit said that Meghalaya is not a Hindi speaking state and Hindi cannot be imposed by the Government of India on the people of the State. “This is against the sentiment of the people of the state.”

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Chief Minister, Conrad K Sangma however said that such behaviour is not accepted from an elected MLA and written English speech is already circulated in the house.Assembly Speaker, Thomas A Sangma said that he would allow the Governor to address the House in Hindi as written speech in English was circulated among all the members.

Health Minister, Ampareen Lyngdoh said, “It is important to consistently pursue with the Government of India that the indigenous people of the state are a non-Hindi speaking community. It is important to understand the inability of Meghalaya to speak and communicate in Hindi”.

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